Poll: Moore enjoys comfortable early lead against Cox in governor’s rematch

by Bryan P. Sears, Maryland Matters
August 12, 2026

Gov. Wes Moore leads Republican challenger Dan Cox by 27 points in the early going of their gubernatorial rematch, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The survey is the first public poll since the primary election to pit the incumbent governor against Cox, Moore’s opponent in 2022. Moore’s edge, while substantial, is slightly smaller than his margin of victory in the 2022 campaign when he bested Cox by 32 percentage points.

“Barring something unforeseen happening over the next 85 days, Governor Moore appears to be on a glide path to re-election,” Adam Carlson, Founding Partner of Zenith Research, said in a statement. “He leads Republican Dan Cox across every gender, age group, race/ethnicity, and income bracket. And he has a much stronger approval rating than the Democratic Party among voters under age 35, those in Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties, Black voters with a four-year college degree, and progressives.”

Zenith Research conducted the poll for Blended Public Affairs and Perry Jacobson, a top Annapolis lobbying firm.

The poll — a text message-to-web interview — surveyed 800 registered Marylanders who were likely to vote in November. It was conducted between July 27 and Aug. 3 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Among other topics in the poll, nearly six in 10 surveyed said they would be very or somewhat likely to remain in the state after retiring. Nearly three in 10 said they would likely or very likely leave. Another 6% said they “don’t expect to retire.”

Poll: Utility costs, the economy and taxes top of mind for voters

Besides having an early polling lead, Moore is well-funded as he vies for a second term. Cox is a lawyer and former one-term Republican delegate who organized transportation for supporters of President Donald Trump on Jan. 6, 2021, and called Vice President Mike Pence “a traitor” in the midst of the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

Moore approval ticks up

The poll also brings good news for Moore in the form of improved job approval ratings.

Fifty-six percent of those who responded said they strongly or somewhat approved of Moore’s job performance. Nearly four in 10 said they somewhat or strongly disapproved.

The result is a 17 percentage point gap between the total of those who approved of Moore’s performance compared to those who disapproved.

In a similar, but not identical, question asked a year ago, that gap had narrowed to 8 points.

Trump disapproval remains consistent

The news for Trump is not as good.

Trump lost the state in 2024 in 28 point drubbing. Since taking office, the Republican president has consistently seen dismal job approval numbers in the state and the held up in Wednesday’s poll, which fell in line with previous surveys from multiple firms.

Roughly three in 10 voters said they approved of the job being done by Trump. Another 67% said they disapproved.

More nukes — for power generation

Part one of the survey released Tuesday found high utility costs were top of mind for a majority of Maryland residents. In the survey released Wednesday, those surveyed said they would back additional electricity generation, including new nuclear plants and extending the use of existing natural gas plants.

According to the survey, 56% of Maryland voters said they would strongly or somewhat support building more nuclear power plants to “meet growing electricity demand” in the state. Nearly 30% said they would somewhat or strongly oppose new nuclear power.

Support for keeping the state’s remaining natural gas power plants open to help meet demands fell along similar lines with 57% strongly or somewhat supporting continued use of the plants. Another 27% said they would oppose extending the use of those plants.

The poll also found:

• More than one-third of those polled gave the state a grade of D or F when it comes to services and quality of life received in return for taxes. Another 57% gave the state a grade of B or C.
• Despite the grades, 73% of those polled said they would be very likely or somewhat likely to still be Maryland residents in five years. Just 20% said they were not very likely or not at all likely to be in the state at the end of five years.
• A plurality of Marylanders – 47% — said they strongly support the sale of beer and wine in grocery stores. When thos who somewhat support expanded beer and wine sales are added in, support jumps to nearly eight people in 10 surveyed. Blended Public Affairs works with a coalition that has pushed to expand sales. Perry Jacobson also represents clients who support expanded sales.

Maryland Matters is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Maryland Matters maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Steve Crane for questions: info@marylandmatters.org.