NOAA predicts above-average Atlantic hurricane season with as many as 19 named storms

by WHRO, Virginia Mercury
May 23, 2025

By Ryan Murphy/WHRO

Warm seawater will likely drive another above-average hurricane season this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

Forecasters expect between 13 and 19 named tropical storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean between June 1 and November 30.

Six to 10 will become full-blown hurricanes, with three to five eventually becoming major storms.

National Weather Service director Ken Graham said improved forecasting has dramatically cut fatalities from these storms, particularly storm surge projections.

But he warned that things can change quickly and people need to heed warnings and be prepared.

“Every Cat 5 that’s hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior. The big ones that hit this country are fast,” Graham said Thursday.

Officials said new forecasting methods and technology are being rolled out this year to better anticipate the rapid intensification of storms.

He also noted that his call for preparation isn’t just for coastal communities.

“When you live 500 miles inland and you really don’t think that you could be impacted like that, right? So it’s hard for people to understand what has never happened before,” Graham said.

Virginia to receive $46 million in federal funds for Helene relief efforts

Last year, during another above-average hurricane season, Hurricane Helene dumped 30 inches of rain on communities hundreds of miles from the coast across the Southeastern United States. The storm was the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. since Katrina in 2005.

“These storms are a stark reminder about how vital it is to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season now, before the storms begin forming in the Atlantic basin,” said Laura Grimm, NOAA’s acting administrator.

Towns in Western Virginia, North Carolina and other states are still recovering from intense flooding and Graham said they’re exploring better ways to notify people of the threats.

The warnings come as the National Weather Service has faced staffing and budget cuts, measures that some worry could hamper weather monitoring efforts.

Grimm said during Thursday’s announcement that NOAA’s Hurricane Center is fully staffed and the cuts won’t impede monitoring.

“We are really making this a top priority for this administration.”

This story was originally published by the Mercury’s media partner WHRO Public Media, the Hampton Roads region’s largest media company.

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