National Unemployment Rate Rises Slightly, Reflecting Seasonal Adjustments

In the week ending January 11, the number of seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States increased by 14,000, reaching 217,000. This follows a revision of the previous week’s figure, which was adjusted upward from 201,000 to 203,000. The four-week moving average also saw a slight decline, decreasing by 750 claims to 212,750.

The unemployment rate for the week ending January 4 remained steady at 1.2%. Insured unemployment claims decreased to 1,859,000, down by 18,000 from the prior week’s revised figure. This data, which includes adjustments for seasonal fluctuations, is considered a key indicator of labor market health. Additionally, the four-week moving average of insured unemployment claims dropped to 1,866,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week.

Unadjusted data showed significant fluctuations across states. For the week ending January 11, the actual initial claims under state programs totaled 351,885, marking a 14.7% increase from the previous week. Seasonal factors had anticipated a smaller rise. Notable increases in claims were observed in New York, Georgia, and Texas, driven by layoffs across various industries, including transportation, construction, and manufacturing. In contrast, states like Michigan and New Jersey reported substantial decreases in claims.

The unemployment rate, unadjusted for seasonal variations, rose slightly to 1.5% for the week ending January 4, reflecting 2,280,439 claims. This marks a year-over-year increase from the same period in 2024, when the rate was 1.4%. The total number of continued claims across all programs also experienced a rise, with 2,213,431 claims filed during the week ending December 28, representing an increase of 327,136 from the previous week.

Article by multiple RFHC contributors.

---